Risk factors for recurrent bile duct stones after endoscopic papillotomy.

BACKGROUND The long term outcome of endoscopic papillotomy (EPT) is not well known. The aims of this study were to clarify the clinical course of post-EPT patients and to detect predictors for bile duct stone recurrence. METHODS A total of 1042 consecutive patients who underwent EPT for bile duct stones from December 1975 to September 1998 were prospectively followed up. Patients were divided into four groups according to gall bladder (GB) status: "acalculous GB" group, "calculous GB" group, "cholecystectomy" group, and "prior cholecystectomy" group. Reliable follow up information was obtained for 983 (94.3%) of the 1042 patients. The following factors were considered in the evaluation of predisposing risk factors for recurrence of bile duct stones: age, sex, gall bladder status, periampullary diverticulum, number of bile duct stones, diameter of bile duct stones, diameter of bile duct, lithotripsy, precutting, pneumobilia, and early complications. RESULTS Recurrence occurred in 111 patients. The "acalculous GB" group was less prone to recurrence than the "prior cholecystectomy" group and the "calculous GB" group. The relative risks (RR) for the latter two compared with the former group were 2.26 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.24-4.14; p=0.0078) and 2.16 (95% CI 1.21-3.87; p=0.0093), respectively. Other prognostic factors were lithotripsy (RR 2.37; 95% CI 1.47-3.81; p=0.0004) and pneumobilia (RR 1.57; 95% CI 1.01-2.43; p=0.044). CONCLUSIONS Gall bladder status, lithotripsy, and pneumobilia were significantly related to bile duct stone recurrence after EPT.